Episode #411: Interview with Nicholas Eberstadt

Current low rates of unemployment, touted by pundits and politicians, are grievously misleading. The truth is that fewer prime-age American men are looking for readily available work than at any previous juncture in our history. Ron and Ed spoke with Nicholas Eberstadt, author of Men Without Work: Post-Pandemic Edition. In addition to the book, they also talked about Nicholas's other area of expertise, North Korea.

A bit more about Nicholas Eberstadt…

Nicholas Eberstadt holds the Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), where he researches and writes extensively on demographics and economic development generally, and more specifically on international security in the Korean peninsula and Asia. Domestically, he focuses on poverty and social well-being. Dr. Eberstadt is also a senior adviser to the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR). His many books and monographs include “Poverty in China” (IDI, 1979); “The Tyranny of Numbers” (AEI Press, 1995); “The End of North Korea” (AEI Press, 1999); “The Poverty of the Poverty Rate” (AEI Press, 2008); and “Russia’s Peacetime Demographic Crisis” (NBR, 2010). His latest book is “Men Without Work: Post-COVID Edition” (Templeton Press, 2022).

Use these show notes to follow along with the audio…(scroll a bit further to see what a bot came up with)

Segment one:

  • First published in 2016 and then updated post-covid, Nick’s book talks about how American men are suffering depression-era unemployment rates. It’s called “Men Without Work” https://www.amazon.com/Men-Without-Work-Post-Pandemic-Threats/dp/1599475979

  • 7 million or more American men have dropped out of the workforce. This is the biggest distinction between depression-era unemployment and today. You’ve got to look in the shadows to see the effects today because there are no breadlines, per se.

  • The received wisdom has been that unemployment is due to a skills shortage. There’s some truth to that but it doesn’t get at the whole story. HELP WANTED signs are everywhere and they are looking for low-skilled applicants. So it’s not just a skills shortage.

  • So how do 7 million or more unemployed American men sustain themselves? It’s hard to tell directly but definitely includes government assistance in the form of disability programs, family members, and moonlighting gigs.

  • Nick mentioned the “flight from work” today on the show and has a GREAT article at AEI on this very topic. More here: https://www.aei.org/op-eds/whats-behind-the-flight-from-work-in-post-pandemic-america/

  • Nick coined the term “archipelago of disability”. They do not provide for a princely life but do have a negative impact on economic productivity in the United States. More here: https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/opinion-free-expression/the-decline-of-men-in-the-workforce/b2e11b0d-5ec6-4652-a974-5a2ede320760

Segment two:

  • “Watching something” is one of the most common traits amongst the under or unemployed 7 MILLION plus American men we are discussing with Nick Eberstadt today.

  • In Nick’s book — “Men Without Work” — he talks about how the US Government accidentally stumbled upon Universal Basic Income with payments made during Covid.

  • As a measure of GDP and overall economic performance, corn and steel were relatively easy to measure. However, with so many in the service sector now it is much harder to measure “hours worked”.

  • So who are these “Men Without Work”? They are NILFs — Not In Labor Force. They are 25-54. African Americans are overrepresented. Latinos are underrepresented. The less educated are overrepresented. Never married? You are more likely in the pool. The foreign born — regardless of ethnic group — are way underrepresented.

Segment three: 

  • So what if 7 million American men have dropped out of the workforce? America is rich. What’s the harm? The harm is slower economic growth, bigger wealth gaps, more dependence on social welfare, more public debt, more pressure on family, and less trust on our institutions of basic life.

  • Since 2000, labor force participation rates for women have been going down. There is a group of women not in the labor force, not currently married, and not with children at home. It’s not as severe as “Men Without Work” but is growing.

  • There are some feasible solutions: 1) Bulking up on vocational skills, 2) Reinventing our disability insurance system so as not to incentivize helplessness, and 3) Paying attention to the 20M+ ex-cons in America. They want to be back at work and accepted members of society.

  • A great recommendation from Nick Eberstadt today! Charles Murray’s book “Losing Ground: American Social Policy” is a great example of changing politics in a very positive way. https://www.amazon.com/Losing-Ground-American-Social-1950-1980/dp/0465065880

  • At the end of segment three today, Nick Eberstadt told the story of Mollie Orshansky. she developed the poverty thresholds that became the federal government's official statistical measure of poverty.

Segment four:

  • From Nick today: The unintended consequence in the real world of “ban the box” means that employers will assume criminality of those coming from a disadvantaged background.

  • Getting rid of overall occupational licensure requirements “looks like low hanging fruit” to Nick. We need to look at public safety vs collusion and cartel in licensing.

  • Nick is an absolute expert on North Korea. He thinks the NK government is unconditional about wanting to absorb the entire peninsula. Given their economic failure, this requires a nuclear arsenal to drive out the allies of their adversaries.

  • The book is Men Without Work and the author is Nicholas Eberstadt. Thank you VERY MUCH for joining us today and sharing your wealth of knowledge and experience. More on the book is here: https://www.amazon.com/Men-Without-Work-Post-Pandemic-Threats/dp/1599475979

The bots are coming for us!

For a few weeks now, we have been experimenting with a new feature from Otter.ai. Many of you will know that some of the current AI solutions have caught Ron and Ed’s attention during the bonus episodes. We let Otter.ai loose on the audio version of this show and here is what it (he? she? they?) came up with:

  • Introduction. 0:00

  • The tyranny of numbers and consumption. 4:37

  • Introducing Nick Eberstadt. 7:08

  • What is the impact of social welfare on the unworking class? 13:28

  • What’s going to happen to the age for disability? 23:21

  • Is the number of people working from home going to mess with your numbers of hours worked? 30:15

  • Marital status is becoming more important to men than women. 34:27

  • Three areas that society should pay closer attention to in New York. 40:06

  • Are you optimistic about these trends? 45:15

  • You can’t just look at income to determine standard of living, you have to look at consumption. 50:07

  • Would getting rid or modifying the infamous “Have you been convicted of a felony?” checkbox be helpful? 55:22

  • The North Korean government’s only option is a new nuclear arsenal to make Uncle Sam blink. 59:24

  • The world as told by Charles Murray. 1:04:27

  • What’s going to happen in North Korea? 1:09:00